Betting
15 posts
Five Backtest Invariants Worth Enforcing In Code
A backtest simulates information availability, and every way it leaks the future flatters your returns. Five invariants, each with the test that pins it.
The Kelly Criterion With Real Payoffs and Real Fees
The Kelly formula everyone quotes assumes you lose your entire stake. With real loss multipliers and fees the sizing changes. Deriving the general form.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: Strategy Comparison
A head-to-head comparison of Kelly, Fractional Kelly, OptimalF, Fixed Fraction, CPPI, and other bankroll strategies. Know which one fits your needs.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: The Naive Strategy
Flat betting with a fixed dollar amount regardless of bankroll. A simple baseline strategy that surprisingly many bettors still use.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: Dynamic Strategies
Dynamic Bankroll Management adapts bet sizing based on recent performance, volatility, and changing conditions. Learn the flexible approach with Keeks.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: CPPI
CPPI protects a floor value of your bankroll while betting a multiple of your cushion above it. Learn how to implement portfolio insurance with Keeks.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: Fixed Fraction
The Fixed Fraction strategy bets a constant percentage of your bankroll on each wager. Learn when this simple approach beats more complex methods.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: OptimalF
Ralph Vince's OptimalF maximizes geometric growth based on your trading history. Learn how it differs from Kelly and how to use it with Keeks.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: Drawdown-Adjusted Kelly
Drawdown-Adjusted Kelly dynamically reduces bet sizes during losing streaks to protect your bankroll. See how to implement it with Keeks.
Bankroll Management with Keeks: Fractional Kelly
Fractional Kelly betting trades some theoretical growth for reduced volatility. Learn how to implement Half Kelly and Quarter Kelly with Keeks.