Decision-Making
20 posts
From Theory to Practice: Building Real Decision Models with Petersburg
A practical guide to modeling complex decisions with Monte Carlo simulation using petersburg, featuring real case studies from startups and drug development.
Resulting: Why Good Decisions Sometimes Look Bad
How judging decisions by their outcomes creates perverse incentives in organizations and why we struggle to separate luck from skill.
Recognition-Primed Decisions: Expert Intuition Under Pressure
How experts make split-second, high-consequence decisions under extreme uncertainty when there's no time for systematic analysis.
The Nursing Decision Cycle: Clinical Judgment Under Pressure
How nurses make high-consequence decisions under extreme time pressure when lives hang in the balance and mistakes cost lives.
Deciding with Incomplete Data: When Perfect Information Isn't Possible
How high-stakes organizations make critical decisions when waiting for complete data could be fatal. Learn three decision frameworks for uncertainty.
High-Reliability Organizations: When Failure Isn't an Option
How organizations that can't afford mistakes make decisions that save lives. Learn the five principles that keep critical systems safe.
Decision-Modeling vs. Process-Modeling: Why the Space Between Matters
How mapping key organizational decisions instead of processes creates flexibility for humans, AI, and automation to work together in whatever way makes sense.
The Speed-Quality Paradox: When Fast Decisions Kill Startups
Navigating the tension between making decisions quickly and making them well-understanding when speed matters most and when quality can't be compromised
Data-Driven Decisions vs. Data-Justified Decisions
The difference between using data to discover truth and using data to support conclusions you've already reached, and why most companies get this backwards.
Simon's Decision Framework: A Simple Structure for Complex Decisions
Herbert Simon's three-phase framework (Intelligence, Design, Choice) provides practical structure for better decision-making in human and AI systems.