Decision-Making
22 posts
Scenario Planning for When You Don't Know What's Coming
How to prepare for crises when you can't predict which specific crisis will hit - lessons from high-reliability organizations.
Bet A Day: An App for Practicing Decisions Under Uncertainty
I built an iOS app to practice making decisions under uncertainty and reflecting on them, using the stock market as a source of randomness.
From Theory to Practice: Building Real Decision Models with Petersburg
A practical guide to modeling complex decisions with Monte Carlo simulation using petersburg, featuring real case studies from startups and drug development.
Resulting: Why Good Decisions Sometimes Look Bad
How judging decisions by their outcomes creates perverse incentives in organizations and why we struggle to separate luck from skill.
Recognition-Primed Decisions: Expert Intuition Under Pressure
How experts make split-second, high-consequence decisions under extreme uncertainty when there's no time for systematic analysis.
The Nursing Decision Cycle: Clinical Judgment Under Pressure
How nurses make high-consequence decisions under extreme time pressure when lives hang in the balance and mistakes cost lives.
Deciding with Incomplete Data: When Perfect Information Isn't Possible
How high-stakes organizations make critical decisions when waiting for complete data could be fatal. Learn three decision frameworks for uncertainty.
High-Reliability Organizations: When Failure Isn't an Option
How organizations that can't afford mistakes make decisions that save lives. Learn the five principles that keep critical systems safe.
Decision-Modeling vs. Process-Modeling: Why the Space Between Matters
How mapping key organizational decisions instead of processes creates flexibility for humans, AI, and automation to work together in whatever way makes sense.
The Speed-Quality Paradox: When Fast Decisions Kill Startups
Navigating the tension between making decisions quickly and making them well-understanding when speed matters most and when quality can't be compromised