Python
173 posts
Nine Bankroll Strategies Under Four Kinds of Stress
keeks v0.6.0 ships a deterministic risk benchmark. Nine staking strategies, four ways to make life hard, and the one that matters most.
When the Fee Eats the Edge
A flat fee does not scale with your bet, and Kelly sizes small when the edge is thin. The interaction costs more than either of them looks like it should.
Twelve Rating Systems, Walked Forward Through Eight Seasons
Do rating systems built for college football beat ones built for chess at predicting college football? Six thousand games, one week at a time.
Scoring a Three-Outcome Predictor
A rating system gives you one number, and a draw is a third outcome that number cannot express. What that does to your accuracy, measured on 40,000 chess games.
Incremental and Global Fit Are Two Different Products
Elo nudges after every result. Massey re-solves the whole season. The choice decides your cold start, your reproducibility, and what a rating even means.
Whole-History Rating: Ratings With a Past Tense
Every other rating system tells you how good a competitor is now. WHR tells you how good they were on any day, using everything learned since.
Margin of Victory: Massey and Pythagorean
Two rating systems that read the scoreboard instead of just the result, and three things that turned up when I interrogated how they use it.
Building Python Libraries in Rust with PyO3 and Maturin
A practical guide to creating Python packages backed by Rust using PyO3 for bindings and Maturin for packaging. Performance without sacrificing usability.
What Uncertainty Buys a Rating System
Glicko, Glicko-2 and TrueSkill all track how sure they are of a rating. What that second number does to a prediction, and whose uncertainty moves it.
Metering Is a Ledger, Not a Counter
Usage-based billing is a transactional problem. Reservations, compensations, and why a job that produces nothing has to refund what it held.